基于地理探测器的A级旅游景区空间分布变动及影响因素——以山东省为例

Spatial distribution changes and influencing factors of A-level tourist attractions based on geodetector:a case study of Shandong Province

基于ArcGIS空间分析和计算功能,采用最邻近指数、核密度分析、重心转移分析方法,从空间分布类型、空间分布密度、空间集聚方向等方面对山东省2003—2018年间A级旅游景区的空间分布及变动特征进行研究,运用地理探测器从自然环境因素、社会政治因素和经济产业因素三方面选取了海拔高度、河流水系、平均气温、国家政策、政府支持、通车里程、常住人口、国民生产总值、第三产业占比和旅游投资10个指标对A级旅游景区的空间分布影响因素进行探究,在此基础上对山东省A级旅游景区的空间结构优化提出对策,结果显示:(1)山东省A级旅游景区的空间分布呈集聚状态,研究时段内A级旅游景区的分布重心向西迁移,并且逐渐接近山东省的几何中心;(2)山东省A级旅游景区的高密度区逐渐增加并呈现由"少而分散向组团结构和带状结构"逐渐演变的趋势;(3)研究时段内自然环境因素变化较小,属于静态影响因素,社会政治因素和经济产业因素变化较大,属于动态影响因素,旅游投资、国民生产总值、政府支持、国家政策和海拔高度是导致A级旅游景区空间分异的主要因素,任意两种因素交互后对A级旅游景区的空间分布的影响均强于单个因素的作用,总体来看自然环境因素的影响能力逐渐下降,社会政治因素的影响能力呈波动变化,经济产业因素的影响能力稳步上升。在此基础上提出山东省A级旅游景区的空间布局优化对策:以高密度分布区为核心,以高密度分布带为重点,推进空间集群建设,加大政策集成,推动社会政治和经济产业等重要影响因素的发展,促进具有全球影响力的世界级旅游景区的建设。

Based on the spatial analysis and calculation function of ArcGIS,this paper studied the spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of A-level tourist attractions in Shandong Province from the aspects of spatial distribution type,spatial distribution density and spatial agglomeration direction by using the nearest neighbor index,kernel density analysis and gravity center transfer analysis methods.Using the geodetector,this paper selects 10 indicators including altitude,river system,average temperature,national policy,government support,traffic mileage,resident population,GDP,proportion of tertiary industry and tourism investment from three aspects of natural environment,social and political factors and economic and industrial factors to explore the influencing factors of the spatial distribution of A-level tourist attractions.The results showed that:(1)The spatial distribution of A-level tourist attractions in Shandong Province was in a state of agglomeration.The distribution center of A-level tourist attractions moved westward in the study period,and was gradually approaching the geometric center of Shandong Province.(2)The high-density areas of A-level tourist attractions in Shandong Province were gradually increasing,and the trend was gradually evolving from being’few and scattered’to being’group structured and belt-structured’.(3)During the study period,the natural environmental factors changed little and belonged to static factors,while the social and political factors and economic and industrial factors changed greatly and belonged to dynamic factors.Tourism investment,gross national product,government support,national policy and altitude were the main factors leading to the spatial differentiation of A-level tourist attractions.The interaction of any two factors resulted in a stronger impact on the spatial distribution of A-level tourist attractions than that of a single factor.The influence ability of the natural environmental factors gradually decreases,that of the social and political factors fluctuated,and that of the economic and industrial factors steadily increased.Based on the previous research,the paper puts forward the countermeasures for optimizing the spatial layout of A-level tourist attractions in Shandong Province as follows:With the high-density distribution area as the core and high-density distribution belt as the focus,we should promote the construction of spatial clusters,increase policy integration,promote the development of social,political,economic and industrial factors,and promote the construction of world-class tourist attractions with global influence.