加速能源转型的经济社会效益评估

Evaluating Economic and Social Benefits of Accelerated Energy Transition

在碳中和背景下,我国能源系统需要深度转型,而发展新能源是能源转型的核心。文章利用综合经济社会效益评价模型框架,比较了当前能源系统转型力度下和未来能源系统加速转型下的经济社会成本和收益。研究表明,以新能源为主体的能源系统深度转型是实现2060年碳中和目标和美丽中国的空气质量要求的必要条件;风光发电的大规模发展将促进自身成本和我国用能成本的进一步下降,带动我国光伏和风电设备出口及其他出口行业的发展,驱动经济的持续增长。加速能源转型还将带动就业岗位的净增长和环境健康效益,避免大量因碳排放造成的社会成本。

To achieve carbon neutrality,China’s energy system needs a radical transition,and the development of new energy is of central importance.Based on the integrated assessment modeling framework,this study compares economic and social costs and benefits between a scenario reflecting the current energy transition momentum and a scenario of accelerated energy transition.We show that the accelerated energy transition dominated by new energy is essential to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 and the air quality target required by Beautiful China.The large development of wind and solar power will further reduce their technology costs and the overall energy costs,which will benefit China’s wind and solar equipment export and other exporting industries,supporting sustainable economic growth.In addition,the accelerated energy transition will create more jobs and health benefits and avoid substantial social costs of carbon emissions.