基于投资者情绪与股票价格视角的中国股市发展趋势研究

Research on the development trend of China's stock market from the perspective of investor sentiment and stock price

30年发展历程中我国股市发展迅猛,但对比西方股票市场,散户化是我国股市重要特征,散户的非理性投资行为,即情绪对股价波动起着重要作用以情绪与股价的关系作为切入点,探究市场的现状,研究表明,投资者的情绪与股价互为格兰杰因果关系,中国市场要达到成熟市场的要求还需努力,但市场的发展形势良好,股票价格受到情绪冲击的作用在降低,市场上投资者情绪波动持续的时间在缩短,投资过程的理性程度在增加.

In the 30 years of development,China's stock market has developed rapidly,but compared with the western stock market,retail investors is an important feature of China's stock market.The irrational investment behavior of retail investors,that is investor sentiment,plays an important role in stock price fluctuation.Taking the relationship between emotion and stock price as the starting point,the current situation of the market was explored.The research shows that there is a Granger causality relationship between investor sentiment and stock price.China's market needs efforts to meet the requirements of a mature market,but the market is developing well.The impact of sentiment stock price on is decreasing,the duration of investor sentiment fluctuation is shortening,and the rational degree of investment process is increasing.