户主年龄、住房支付能力与家庭租购选择——基于CFPS的微观证据

Household-head age,housing affordability and tenure choice——Evidence from CFPS

家庭住房租购选择偏好是租赁市场发展的重要影响因素.本文旨在探讨老龄化背景下的家庭租购选择问题,探析家庭住房租购行为的生命周期效应及住房支付能力在其中的调节作用.首先,基于理论分析,提出了人口年龄结构变化作用于家庭租购选择的住房租购偏好和住房支付约束两个传导渠道;其次,基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,运用面板Logit、Probit模型,实证检验了户主年龄、房价和收入对家庭购房可能性的影响,并进行了区域层面和收入层面的异质性分析.结果表明,我国城镇家庭购房的可能性随户主年龄呈"倒U型"分布,房价和收入对户主年龄与购房可能性的关系分别产生正向和负向调节效应,且对低收入和东部区域家庭作用更为明显.本研究可为政府引导住房租赁市场发展、推进住房制度改革、有效应对人口老龄化时代的住房问题等提供理论依据.

Tenure choice has been a key factor influencing the development of housing rental market.This article aims to analyze households’housing tenure choice under the increasing population aging in China.It theoretically and empirically explores the life-cycle effects of housing tenure choice and the moderating role of housing affordability.First,how household tenure choice influenced by housing preferences and housing affordability is explored theoretically.Second,this study empirically analyzes the effects of household-heads age,house prices and income on the possibility of buying houses by panel logit and probit models,as well as the data from China Family Panel Studies(CFPS).Furthermore,the heterogeneous analysis for households are conducted respectively at income level and regional level.The results suggest that the possibility of purchasing houses for households in China changes with the age of the households’heads by inverted Ushape.House prices and household-heads age respectively have a positive and negative moderating effect on the relationship between household-heads age and possibility of buying houses.Furthermore,the effects are more significant for households with low income and in east areas.This study can provide theoretical supports for the government to guide the development of housing rental market and the promotion of housing reform,effectively addressing the housing issue under the background of fast population aging in China.