澜湄流域国家制造业嵌入全球价值链对生产结构复杂度的影响研究

The Impact of Manufacturing Industry Embedded in Global Value Chain on The Complexity of Production Structure in The Lancang-Mekong River Basin

受中美贸易摩擦与新冠肺炎疫情防控常态化的双重影响,以越南为代表的澜湄流域国家成为全球替代中国出口和吸收发达国家产业转移的重要目的地。在全球投入产出框架下,根据泰国、老挝、柬埔寨和越南四个澜湄流域国家2000年和2007—2017年14个制造业行业的数据,分别采用双固定效应模型和工具变量法,考察全球价值链嵌入对其生产结构复杂度的影响。从整体来看,全球价值链的双向参与均有利于提高澜湄流域国家制造业生产结构复杂度,但存在国家和产业差异。从影响机制来看,全球价值链双向参与均能通过中级人力资本促进澜湄流域国家制造业生产结构复杂度的提升。

Under the dual influence of increasing trade frictions between China and the United States and the separation of global value chains(GVC) caused by the normalization of COVID-19 prevention and control, countries in the Lancang-Mekong River region, represented by Vietnam, have become the most important destinations in the world to replace China’s exports and absorb industrial transfer from developed countries. Based on panel data of 14 manufacturing sectors in Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam in 2000 and 2007-2017, the instrumental variable method and fixed effect model were used to investigate the impact of manufacturing industry integration into global value chains in Lancang-Mekong countries on the complexity of production structure. On the whole, the two-way participation of global value chain is conducive to improving the complexity of manufacturing structure in Lancang Mekong countries, but there are differences between countries and industries. From the perspective of impact mechanism, the two-way participation of global value chain can promote the complexity of manufacturing production structure in Lancang Mekong countries through intermediate human capital.