动物鼠疫季节性分布的集中度法和圆形分布法分析

Seasonal distribution analysis of animal plague with concentration ratio and circular distribution

目的通过集中度法和圆形分布法探讨内蒙古高原长爪沙鼠鼠疫疫源地动物鼠疫季节分布特征。方法运用集中度法和圆形分布法对动物鼠疫发生的季节性变化规律进行分析。结果内蒙古高原长爪沙鼠鼠疫疫源地2019年全年剖验各种动物18547只,检验媒介昆虫4604组,间接血球凝集试验(IHA)法检验各种动物血清3936份,共计判定阳性材料123份。其中1月、2月、4月及6月未检出阳性材料,其他各个月份均有阳性材料,集中在11月(36份)、9月(31份)和8月(27份)。集中度(M=0.807)为0.7~0.9,说明长爪沙鼠鼠疫自然疫源地动物鼠疫有明显的季节性;圆形分布法存在角均数α=96.73°,r=0.6705,Z=55.3006,P<0.001。结论集中度法和圆形分布法均能较真实地反映动物鼠疫发生的季节性分布。

Objective To explore the seasonal distribution of animal plague with concentration ratio and circular distribution in Meriones unguiculatus foci of Inner Mongolia Plateau.Methods Concentration ratio method and circular distribution method were adopted to analyze the seasonal distribution of animal plague.Results In Meriones unguiculatus foci of Inner Mongolia Plateau in 2019,123 materials were found positive from 18547 dissected animals,4604 groups tested insects and 3936 indirect hemagglutination assayed serum samples.The positive materials were mostly found in November(36),September(31)and August(27),and no positive materials were found in January,February,April and June.The concentration ratio(M=0.807)was between 0.7 and 0.9,indicating obvious seasonality in the natural plague of Meriones unguiculatus foci of Inner Mongolia.The circular distribution showed the average angle of 96.73°(r=0.6705,Z=55.3006,P<0.001).Conclusion The concentration ratio and circular distribution can reflect the seasonal distribution of animal plague accurately.