基于新陈代谢灰色系统模型矿井涌水量预测

Prediction of mine water surges based on metabolic gray system model

针对矿井开采深度增加、时间跨度长,水文地质条件发生变化,老空水和涌(突)水等不确定因素使得矿井涌水量随机性增强、涌水量预测精度降低的情况,提出利用新陈代谢灰色系统模型GM(1,1)预测矿井涌水量的方法。对实际观测的涌水量数据不断新陈代谢,补充新观测的涌水量数据同时,及时去掉已不能反映矿井涌水量特征的老数据,建模对未来矿井涌水量进行预测。应用邯郸市牛儿庄矿2010—2017年矿井实际观测的涌水量数据,建立灰色系统模型;去掉2010年实际观测的涌水量,置入2018年实际观测的涌水量,建立新陈代谢灰色系统模型;基于MATLAB软件编程预测2019年涌水量,新陈代谢模型预测精度0.99,老数据模型0.92,新陈代谢模型精度较高,可以对矿井涌水量进行预测。

For the mining depth increasing,time span,hydrogeological conditions change,the old empty water and surge(sudden)water and other uncertain factors make the mine water surge randomness enhanced,the water surge prediction accuracy reduced,the use of metabolic gray system model GM(1,1)prediction of mine water surge method was proposed.To the actual observed surge data constantly metabolism,the new observed surge data at the same time was supplemented,timely removal of the old data has not reflected the characteristics of mine surge,modeling of future mine surge prediction.Handan Niu'erzhuang Mine from 2010 to 2017 the actual observed mine surge data,the establishment of gray system model;remove the actual observed surge data in 2010,the actual observed surge data in 2018 was put,with the establishment of metabolic gray system model;based on MATLAB software programming to predict the 2019 surge water,metabolic model prediction accuracy was 0.99,the old data model 0.92,metabolic model accuracy was high,can be predicted for mine water surge.