基于事故树的三峡库区船舶碰撞事故致因分析

Causes Analysis of Ship Collision Accident in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Yangtze River based on Accident Tree

目的为改善和提高三峡库区船舶航行安全。方法调查近年来重庆海事局辖区所发生的船舶事故,应用事故树方法分析三峡库区船舶碰撞原因。结果航行疏于戒备、疏于瞭望、临危操作不当等18个主要危险因素和11个最小割集,计算其危险因素的概率重要度分析三峡库区船舶碰撞发生概率,建立危险因素的临界重要度,得出临危操作不当是三峡库区船舶碰撞事故的重要原因。结论运用事故树分析方法建立的危险因素临界重要度可以精准预防船舶航行事故。

Objective To improve the navigation safety of ships in the Three Gorges reservoir area of the Yangtze River.Methods The ship accidents occurred in the area of Chongqing Maritime Safety Administration in recent years were investigated and the cause of ship collision in the Three Gorges reservoir area of the Yangtze River was analyzed by accident tree method.Results Analysis navigation neglect lookout and emergency alert,neglected 18 major risk factors such as improper operation and 11 minimum cut sets,probability importance calculate risk factors analysis of the three gorges reservoir area of collision probability,establish the risk factors of critical importance,draw up a improper operation is the important reason for the Three Gorges reservoir area ship collision accident.Conclusion The critical importance of risk factors established by accident tree analysis method can accurately prevent navigation accidents.