互联互通会提高企业跨国并购的成功率吗?--中国企业在“一带一路”沿线跨国并购的经验证据

Can Connectivity Raise the Success Rate of China’s Cross-border M&A?:Empirical Evidence of Cross-border M&A of Chinese Enterprises along the Belt and Road

跨国并购可以使企业更充分地发挥自身的优势,更好地利用国际国内两个市场、两种资源,更有效地推动国内国际双循环的相互促进。跨国并购的成败不仅与企业经营管理能力有关,也受到国际关系的影响,母国与东道国之间的互联互通有利于企业跨国并购的成功;不同类型的并购企业或并购目标企业在不同区域的跨国并购可能有不同的成功率,且互联互通对并购成功率的提升效应也具有异质性。以2009—2019年中国企业在“一带一路”沿线的跨国并购事件为样本,基于五通指数从政策沟通、设施联通、经贸融通、民心相通4个方面衡量两国间的互联互通水平,实证分析表明:中国与东道国政策沟通、设施联通、经贸融通、民心相通水平的提高对中国企业跨国并购成功率具有正向影响,其中设施联通和经贸融通的促进作用更为明显;中国国有企业在“一带一路”沿线跨国并购的成功率比非国有企业的成功率低,并购企业的国有身份会弱化政策沟通和民心相通对并购成功率的提升作用、强化设施联通和经贸融通对并购成功率的提升作用;并购目标企业属于敏感行业的并购成功率低于不属于敏感行业的并购成功率,属于敏感行业会弱化政策沟通、设施联通、经贸融通、民心相通对并购成功率的提升作用,且这种弱化效应对国有并购企业更为显著;在东南亚和西亚地区,中国与东道国政策沟通、设施联通、经贸融通、民心相通水平提高对中国企业跨国并购成功率的影响存在明显的异质性。因此,应不断深化推进与世界各国的“五通”建设,通过国家间的互联互通改善企业对外经贸合作的宏观条件和市场环境;对外经贸合作要坚持互利共赢的原则,以利益共同体的发展推动人类命运共同体的构建;进一步落实国有企业市场主体地位,积极塑造国有企业“真正市场主体”形象;重视互联互通状况对企业跨国并购的影响,合理选择适宜的东道国和目标企业。

Cross-border mergers and acquisitions(M&A)can more effectively boost the interactive support of domestic and international circulations by making the enterprises more sufficiently bring self-advantage into fully play and by better making use of domestic and international markets and the two kinds of resources.The success or failure of the cross-border M&A is not only related to the management ability of the enterprises but also affected by the international relations,therefore,the connectivity between the home countries and the host countries is conducive to the success of cross-border M&A of the enterprises.The cross-border M&A of different types of M&A enterprises or the targeted enterprises are possible to have different success rates,and the improving effect of the connectivity on the success rate of the M&A also has heterogeneity.By taking the cross-border M&A events of Chinese enterprises along the Belt and Road during 2009-2019 as samples,based on five connectivity indexes,this paper measures the connectivity level between China and the host countries from such four perspectives as policy communication,facility connection,economy and trade integration,and people’s communication.The empirical analysis shows that the rise of the level of policy communication,facility connection,economy and trade integration,and people’s communication has a positive effect on the success rate of the cross-border M&A of Chinese enterprises,among which the boosting effect of facility connection and economy and trade integration is more significant.The success rate of cross-border M&A along the Belt and Road of China’s state-owned enterprises is lower than that of non-state-owned enterprises.The state-owned identity of the M&A enterprises can weaken the boosting effect of policy communication and people’s communication but can consolidate the boosting effect of facility connection and economy and trade integration on the success rate of the M&A events.The success rate of the M&A of the targeted enterprises which belong to sensitive industries is lower than that of the enterprises which do not belong to sensitive industries.The M&A in the sensitive industries can weaken the boosting effect of policy communication,facility connection,economy and trade integration,and people’s communication on M&A’s success rate,and this weakening effect is more significant on the M&A of state-owned enterprises.In Southeast Asia and West Asia,the influence of the rise of the level of policy communication,facility connection,economy and trade integration,and people’s communication between China and the host countries on the success rate of cross-border M&A of Chinese enterprises has significant heterogeneity.Thus,we should continue to push forward and deepen the“five-connectivity”construction,improve the macro-condition and market environment for foreign economic and trade cooperation of the enterprises,uphold double-win and interactive profitability principle in foreign economic and trade cooperation,use interests community development to boost human destiny community development,further implement the subject position of state-own enterprises,actively shape the real market subject image of state-owned enterprises,emphasize the influence of the connectivity on cross-border M&A,and reasonably select suitable host countries and targeted enterprises.