不同生态系统管理情景下资源环境承载力动态仿真研究

Dynamic simulation of resource and environmental carrying capacity under different ecosystem management scenarios

环境问题与社会经济发展关系机理错综复杂,研究环境承载力状态对实现区域可持续发展具有重要意义.基于资源环境复合系统原理,构建"经济-资源-环境"系统动力学模型,通过生态系统评估的4种情景时间序列动态仿真,探索经济社会发展的优化方案.结果表明:全球协同和技术家园更适合福州市自身发展需求,为保持福州市经济发展的可持续性,应优先选用全球协同发展模式,后期可逐步向技术家园发展模式转变.福州市作为生态文明思想重要实践地,在提高经济发展水平的同时,需更好地保护生态环境,实现经济-资源-环境协同发展.研究结果在一定程度上可为经济社会发展模式提供科学依据.

The mechanism of the relationship between environmental problems and social-economic development is very complicated. It is of great significance to study environmental carrying capacity for regional sustainable development. Based on the principle of resource-environment complex system, building the "economy-resource-environment" system dynamics model, and the optimization scheme of economic and social development is explored through the dynamic simulation of four scenarios of ecosystem assessment time series. The research show that Global Orchestration and Techno Garden are more suitable for the development needs of Fuzhou. In order to maintain the sustainability of economic development of Fuzhou, the Global Orchestration development mode should be selected first, and the development mode of Techno Garden can be gradually developed in the later stage. As an important practice of ecological civilization thought, Fuzhou needs to better protect the ecological environment and realize the coordinated development of economy, resources and environment at the same time of economic development. To some extent, the research results can provide scientific basis for the economic and social development model.