进口竞争对中国制造业发展质量的影响机制——基于创新的中介效应

Impact Mechanism of Import Competition on the Development Quality of Chinese Manufacturing:Based on the Mediating Effect of Innovation

本文利用2002-2018年中国与78个样本国制造业贸易的面板数据,从规模、结构、效率层面实证分析进口竞争对中国制造业发展质量的直接效应;并以创新的中介效应为切入点,厘清进口竞争对中国制造业发展质量的影响机制;进一步将创新划分为模仿创新和自主创新,考察创新作为中介变量的根本途径。研究表明:(1)进口竞争对中国制造业发展质量的直接效应是非线性,在规模层面为"U型"影响,在结构和效率层面为"倒U型"影响;(2)创新在进口竞争与中国制造业发展质量关系间发挥了中介效应,在规模和结构层面为部分中介,在效率层面为完全中介;(3)模仿创新是进口竞争影响中国制造业规模和结构发展的的中介变量,而自主创新是进口竞争影响中国制造业规模、结构和效率的的中介变量。

This paper uses panel data of manufacturing trade between China and 78 sample countries from 2002 to 2018 to analyze the direct effect of import competition on the development quality of Chinese manufacturing industry from the scale,structure and efficiency level;and try to clarify the influence mechanism of import competition on the development quality of China’s manufacturing industry based on mediating effect of innovation;then this paper divides innovation into imitation innovation and independent innovation in order to investigate the basic way of innovation as intermediary variable.The results show that:The direct effect of import competition on the development quality of Chinese manufacturing industry is non-linear,which is"U-shaped"at the scale level,and"inverted U"in structure and efficiency level;Innovation plays an intermediary effect in the relationship between import competition and the quality of China manufacturing development,and it is a part of intermediary at the scale and structure level,and is a complete intermediary at the efficiency level;Imitation Innovation is the intermediary variable that influences the scale and structure of Chinese manufacturing industry,while independent innovation is the intermediary variable that influences the scale,structure and efficiency of Chinese manufacturing industry.