低生育率社会的人口变动规律及其应对--以上海地区的生育意愿和生育行为为例

Law of Population Change and Its Countermeasures in Low Fertility Society--Taking Fertility Willingness and Behavior in Shanghai as an Example

随着三孩政策的到来,不断探索低生育率下人口变动的新特性,是低生育率社会迫切需要研究的重要课题。上海是我国典型的长期处于低生育率甚至是超低生育率的特大型城市。上海的实证数据分析表明,低生育率社会中人们的生育意愿和生育行为有其独特规律:不同特征人群均表现出打算/实际生育一个或两个孩子的"趋同性";较高受教育程度和家庭收入水平人群,表现出意愿生育子女数较高且更可能转化为实际二孩生育行为的"倒挂性";实际生育水平表现为长期低于生育意愿的"偏低性";生育与婚姻两个密切相关的生命事件表现出"脱钩性"。这些特征提示,不可再盲目沿用高生育率社会积累的对生育变动规律性的认识,来考察当前的低生育率社会。

With the arrival of the three child policy,constantly exploring the new characteristics of population change under the low fertility rate is an important topic that needs to be answered urgently in the era of low fertility rate.Shanghai is a typical mega city with low fertility rate or even ultra-low fertility rate for a long time.The empirical data analysis of Shanghai shows that people’s fertility will and behavior show a unique law in a low fertility society.These characteristics suggest that we can no longer blindly use the understanding of the regularity of fertility changes accumulated in the era of high fertility to investigate the current stage of low fertility.