经济增长动能转换与绿色发展耦合协调的时空格局演化分析

The evolution of the spatiotemporal pattern of the coupling and coordination between economic growth kinetic energy conversion and green development

绿色发展与动能转换之间联系密切,研究根据二者内涵构建综合评价指标体系,基于耦合协调相对发展度模型、空间自相关、重心和标准差椭圆模型分析中国31个省市(不含港澳台)2008—2018年两系统耦合协调的时空格局演变特征,得出以下结论:(1)绿色发展和动能转换综合指数均呈波动上升趋势,但空间异质性显著,东部沿海地区水平最高。(2)各省绿色发展与动能转换的耦合协调度逐年提升,逐步形成东部沿海地区为轴带向中西部地区扩散的"川"字阶梯型发展格局。(3)绿色发展与动能转换的耦合协调度具有显著的空间正相关性,位于"低-低"类型区域的省份最多,高值和低值区域趋于两极集聚分布。(4)2008—2018年耦合协调度的重心主要向西南方向迁移,耦合协调度呈向西南方向分散的态势。东、中、西部地区绿色发展与动能转换耦合协调的空间格局演变特征存在差异,东部地区呈西南方向迁移的分散态势,中部地区呈西南方向迁移的集聚态势,西部地区呈东南方向迁移的集聚态势。

There is a close connection between green development and kinetic energy conversion.A comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed based on the connotations of the two.The study analyzes the evolution characteristics of the spatiotemporal pattern of the coupling and coordination of the two systems in China’s 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities,excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2008 to 2018,using the coupling coordination relative development model,spatial autocorrelation,center of gravity and standard deviation ellipse model.And the following conclusions are drawn:(1)Both the comprehensive index of green development and kinetic energy conversion fluctuate and rise,but show a pronounced spatial heterogeneity,with the highest level in the eastern coastal area.(2)The degree of coupling and coordination between green development and kinetic energy conversion in various provinces has been improved year by year,gradually forming a Ⅲ-shaped tiered development pattern,with the eastern coastal area as the axis spreading to the central and western regions.(3)The degree of coupling and coordination between green development and kinetic energy conversion has a remarkable positive spatial correlation.The majority of the provinces fall into the"low-low"category,and the high-value and low-value areas tend to be polarized.(4)From 2008 to 2018,the center of gravity of the coupling coordination degree mainly moved to the southwest,and the coupling coordination degree dispersed to the southwest.The spatial pattern evolution characteristics of the coupling and coordination between green development and kinetic energy conversion in the eastern,central and western regions are different.The eastern region shows a dispersed trend of moving in the southwest direction,the central region shows a centralized trend of moving in the southwest direction,and the western region shows a gathering trend of migration in the southeast direction.