人口老龄化如何影响经济增长——基于总供给与总需求的分析视角

Impact of Population Aging on Economic Growth Based on Perspective of Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand Analysis

全球人口老龄化持续加剧,中国的人口老龄化问题也同样严峻,中国政府已经将应对人口老龄化问题上升到了国家战略的高度。为了从理论层面厘清人口老龄化对宏观经济运行的影响,分别分析了人口老龄化对供给侧和需求侧的影响,并在此基础上分析了人口老龄化对经济增长的影响。基于跨国面板数据的实证研究发现,老年抚养比提高1个百分点,会使GDP显著降低0.23个百分点,即一个国家的老年抚养比的提高会对经济增长产生显著的负面影响。与此同时,结合联合国有关中国的人口预测数据来分析中国人口年龄结构变化对于中国中长期经济增长的影响。研究发现,少年抚养比的逐年递减和老年抚养比的逐年递增将导致中国中长期经济增长率逐年下降。建议制定配套政策鼓励生育、延迟退休年龄等,以缓解人口老龄化对中国经济增长的潜在负面影响。

The global population aging continues to aggravate and China's population aging problem is also serious.The Chinese government has to deal with the problem of population aging and has put the issue to the height of national strategy.In order to clarify theoretically the impact of population aging on macroeconomic operation,this paper analyzes the impacts of population aging on the supply side and the demand side respectively.On that basis,the impact of population aging on economic growth is analyzed.An empirical study based on transnational panel data finds that an increase of one percentage point of the old-age dependency ratio will reduce significantly the GDP by 0.23%,that is,the increase of a country's old dependency ratio will have a significant negative impact on economic growth.At the same time,based on the above analysis,combined with the United Nations's population forecast data related to China,this paper analyzes the impact of change in population age structure on China's medium and long term economic growth.The study finds that the year-on-year decline in the juvenile dependency ratio and the year-on-year increase in the elderlye dependency ratio will cause China's mid-and long-term economic growth rate to decline year by year.It is recommended to formulate supporting policies to encourage childbirth and delay the retirement age to alleviate the potential negative impact of demographic factors on China's economic growth.