经贸合作、府会政治与中美关系的张力——基于美国国会涉华提案数据库(2001—2019)的分析

Economic Cooperation,Government-Congress Politics and the Tension in China-US Relations——An Analysis Based on a New China Bills by U.S.Congress Dataset(2001—2019)

长期以来,美国国会通过涉华提案对中美关系产生了复杂的影响。国内外学者对该议题的研究已有高质量成果,但既有研究还存在描述性多过解释性,且偏重典型的、成功立法的、负面案例的倾向。本文构建并介绍了新的2001—2019年美国国会涉华提案数据库,并使用描述性统计方法,展示了该数据库中涉华提案的类型、议题领域、涉华态度、生存历程等关键变量的特征和趋势。借助解释性的统计工具可以发现,中美经贸关系的发展,尤其是美国各州对中国产品的进口,有助于减少该州国会议员所提涉华消极提案的数量。在府会政治方面,执政党议员在一致政府期间提出的涉华提案远多于分立政府时期,而在野党议员在分立政府时期提出了更多的涉华提案。本文的数据和研究发现有助于我们进一步理解和把握美国国会涉华行为的原因、趋势和影响。

For a long time,U.S.Congress has had a complicated impact on China-US relations through its China Bills.Scholars at home and abroad have done high-quality research on this topic.However,the academic community still needs a new,integrated and open dataset of these China-related bills to push forward the research agenda,in order to reverse the tendency of over-emphasis on descriptive instead of explanatory research,and avoid the potential bias of typical,successful and negative cases.In this paper,we construct and introduce a new China Bills by U.S.Congress Dataset(2001—2019),and then use descriptive statistical method to display the characteristics of the key variables in the database. Using Explanatory statistical tools, we find that China-US economic cooperation,especially U.S.’s import from China,can reduce congressional negative views towards China. Moreover, U.S.congressmen of the incumbent party propose more negative bills in the unitary government than in the divided government,while U.S.congressmen of the opposition party propose more negative bills in the divided government than in the unitary government.The paper and the new dataset can help to advance the research on the causes,trends,and impacts of U.S.Congress on China-US relations.