苏州轨道交通客流分析预测系统框架设计研究

Framework design of Suzhou rail transit passenger flow analysis and prediction system

苏州轨道交通目前仍未有整合地铁、有轨电车、城际铁路的客流分析预测系统。在对现有轨道数据分析的基础上,确定系统功能的定位和设计原则,将客流分析预测系统分为基于大数据及出行链的乘客出行特征分析、多场景需求预测及灵敏度分析、突发事件下影响多方式轨道交通客流分析、多方式轨道交通客流状态实时推演、客流分析与预测展示等5个子系统,初步形成了苏州轨道交通客流分析预测的系统框架。该框架为城市交通管理及控制提供了更好的辅助决策,为提升苏州市交通服务水平给予参考。

There is no passenger flow analysis and prediction system integrating subway,tram and intercity railway in Suzhou rail transit.Based on the analysis of the existing rail data,the positioning and design principles of the system function are determined.The passenger flow analysis and prediction system is divided into the analysis of passenger travel characteristics based on big data and travel chain,multi scenario demand prediction and sensitivity analysis,passenger flow analysis of multi-mode rail transit affected by emergencies,real-time deduction of passenger flow status of multi-mode rail transit,and passenger flow analysis and prediction The system framework of Suzhou rail transit passenger flow analysis and prediction is initially formed.The framework provides a better decision support for urban traffic management and control,and provides a reference for improving the traffic service level of Suzhou.