贸易摩擦、国内市场规模与经济高质量发展:国际技术竞争的视角

Trade Friction,Domestic Market Scale and High-Quality Economic Development:Perspective of International Technology Competition

贸易摩擦突显出国内市场规模对促进经济高质量发展的重要性。本文构建内生技术创新模型研究表明,美国对华加征关税通过价格效应抑制高技术创新,通过市场规模效应和市场竞争效应促进高技术创新;美国对华高技术中间品出口限制通过价格效应促进高技术创新,通过市场规模效应抑制高技术创新。利用2000—2014年WIOD数据实证研究表明,中美贸易摩擦可以显著促进中国经济的高质量发展,美国对华加征关税通过扩大高技能劳动市场规模、美国对华高技术中间品出口限制通过扩大高技术中间品市场需求规模,促进经济高质量发展并缓解贸易摩擦的负面影响。处理效应模型研究表明,贸易摩擦对中美技术差距扩大的行业负向影响较大,而对中美技术差距缩小行业的高质量发展存在较大的正向影响。

Sino-US trade frictions highlight the importance of domestic market scale to promote China’s high-quality economic development.This paper constructs an endogenous technology innovation model shows that the United States imposes tariffs on China to suppress high-tech innovation through price effects, promotes high-tech innovation through market scale effect and market competition effect, and the US export restrictions on high-tech intermediate products to China promotes high-tech innovation through price effect and inhibits high-tech innovation through market scale effects.Empirical test shows that Sino-US trade friction can significantly promote the high-quality development of China’s economy using the 2000-2014 WIOD data.The United States imposes tariffs on China can promote high-quality economic development and alleviating the negative impact of trade frictions by expanding the scale of the high-skilled labor market.The US export restrictions on high-tech intermediate products to China promote the high-quality development of the economy by expanding the demand for high-tech intermediate products and relieve the negative effects of trade friction.Treatment effect models show that trade friction has a greater negative impact on the industry that the gap between China and the United States is expanding, and Trade friction has a greater positive impact on the industry that the gap between China and the United States is decreasing.