疫情对中国碳脱钩进程的潜在影响——基于动态CGE模型的分析

Potential Effects of Epidemic on Decarbonization Process in China--Analysis Based on a Dynamic CGE Model

基于经济-能源-环境动态CGE模型研究新冠肺炎疫情对中国碳强度减排的影响。结果表明,短期内疫情冲击越大越不利于降低碳强度。实现既定碳强度减排目标时,疫情短期内对碳边际减排成本的影响比较显著,但长期内各情景中的碳边际减排成本将趋同。进一步,疫情不会明显影响中国碳达峰时间节点,但将显著降低碳峰值。

This paper analyzes impacts of the epidemic on carbon intensity reduction in China with an economic-energy-environmental dynamic CGE model.The results indicate that the larger the epidemic shock,the less conducive to reducing carbon intensity in short term.Supposing that the established carbon intensity reduction targets will be realized,the impact of epidemic on marginal cost of carbon mitigation(MCCM)will be significant in short-term,whereas the MCCMs in different scenarios will converge to each other in long-term.Further,the epidemic will not take apparent effect on the peaking time point of carbon emissions in China but it will decrease the peak in carbon emissions significantly.