财政支农能持续提高农业技术进步吗——基于边际视角的省际面板门限模型实证研究

Can Financial Support Continue to Improve Agricultural Technology Progress:An Empirical Analysis of Provincial Panel Threshold Model Based on Marginal Perspective

基于边际视角采用省级面板数据,利用固定效应与门限模型实证检验财政支农对推动农业技术进步的非线性影响,并探究提高支农资金使用效率的改革路径。研究表明,财政支农与农业技术进步之间存在倒U型关系,基于边际报酬递减规律下的财政资金并不能持续提高农业技术进步,稳健性检验依然成立;从禀赋差异来看,财政支农对农业技术进步的产出在地区间存在饱和效应;引入社会资本参与和进行农业纵向开发有利于推迟U型拐点的到来。因此,财政支农推动农业现代化需要多元吸收社会资本,注重地区投资布局,深入农业开发程度与优化自身管理结构。

Based on a marginal perspective,using provincial panel data,using fixed effects and threshold models,the paper empirically tests the non-linear impact of financial support for agriculture on the promotion of agricultural technology progress,and explores reform paths to improve the efficiency of agricultural support funds.This study provides these evidence:There is an inverted U—shaped relationship between financial support for agriculture and agricultural technological progress.Fiscal funds based on the law of diminishing marginal returns cannot continue to improve agricultural technological progress,and it is still valid under the robustness test;From the perspective of endowment differences,the output of financial support for agriculture on agricultural technological progress has a saturation effect among regions;The introduction of social capital participation and agricultural vertical development is conducive to delaying the arrival of u—shaped inflection point.Therefore,financial support for agriculture to promote agricultural modernization requires diversified absorption of social capital,focusing on regional investment layout,increasing the degree of in-depth agricultural development and optimizing its own management structure.