优化非等时距加权灰色-时序组合模型在地铁监测中的应用

Application of Optimized Non-equal Time Interval Weight Grey Time Series Combination Model in Subway Monitoring

对某地铁工程沉降数据进行建模预测,可以掌握其变形规律并预测变形趋势。本文将传统非等时距灰色模型引入时距权比系数,按照不同的生成及还原方式构建3种预测模型,并确定最优拟合序列。在此基础上,组合时序模型对残差部分进行处理,建立优化非等时距加权灰色-时序组合模型,结合工程实例进行验证。结果表明,优化非等时距加权灰色-时序组合模型在地铁监测中具有实用性。

Aming to grasp the deformation law and predict the deformation tendency,the settlement data of a subway project is used for modeling prediction.The weight ratio coefficient of time interval is introduced into traditional non-equal time interval grey model.Three prediction models are constructed by different methods of generation and reduction,and the optimal fitting sequence is determined.In order to settle the residual sequence,the time series model is intoduced to comine with the optimized non-equal time interval weight grey model.On this basis,the optimized non-equal time interval weight grey time series combination model is established and verified by engineering examples.The conclusion show that the optimized non-equal time interval weight grey time series combination model is effective in the subway monitoring.