中国种植业生产集聚的影响因素研究

Factors affecting the production agglomeration of planting industry in China

通过对空间基尼系数、产业集中率、生产规模指数和空间自相关指数的计算,描述了1998-2018年中国种植业生产集聚的时空特征,采用时间空间双向固定的杜宾模型对生产集聚的影响因素进行实证分析,研究中国种植业生产集聚的影响因素,为优化农业生产布局和提高农产品有效供给的政策制定提供参考。结果表明:中国种植业生产集聚程度呈现先上升后缓慢下降的趋势,生产分布具有显著的空间正相关性。农业耕地数量、化肥利用效率、交通设施密度、财政支农力度和工业化水平的提高有利于种植业生产集聚程度的提升,而农村人力资本不能对集聚起到正向促进作用,成灾程度、机械化水平和经济开放程度的影响效果不显著。提出鼓励适度规模经营,培养农业专业技术人才,建设农产品配套产业链等政策建议。

Production agglomeration is an effective way to promote the sustainable development of agricultural economy.This article studied the factors influencing production agglomeration of planting industry in China to provide a reference for policy making to optimize the layout of agricultural production and increase the effective supply of agricultural products.The spatial-temporal characteristics of production agglomeration of planting industry in China from 1998 to 2018 were described by calculating the spatial Gini coefficient,industrial concentration rate,production scale index and spatial autocorrelation index.The Durbin model with period and spatial double fixed effects was used to empirically analyze the factors affecting production agglomeration.The results showed that the degree of production agglomeration of planting industry in China first increased and then decreased slowly,and the distribution of production had a significant positive spatial correlation.The increase in the amount of agricultural arable land,the efficiency of utilizing chemical fertilizer,the density of transportation facilities,and the financial support for agriculture and the industrialization level was conducive to the increase in the degree of production agglomeration of planting.However,rural human capital did not play a positive role in promoting the agglomeration.The impact of the degree of disaster,the level of mechanization and the degree of economic openness was not significant in the model.Policy recommendations including encouraging moderate-scale operations,training agricultural professional and technical personnel,and building a supporting industrial chain for agricultural products are put forward.