预期寿命、养老保险降费与老年劳动供给:兼论中国退休政策改革

Life Expectancy, Pension Contribution Rate Reduction and Elderly Labor Supply with a Discussion on Chinese Retirement Policy Reform

本文通过构建一个包含体制性结构与劳动者退休决策异质性的世代交叠模型,考察了预期寿命、养老保险降费对老年劳动供给的影响。研究发现:由于体制外劳动者的老年劳动供给具有灵活性,降低养老保险费率能促使他们延迟退休,有利于提高社会老年劳动供给。如果体制内劳动者也能灵活选择老年劳动时间或法定退休年龄延迟,降低养老保险费率可以更多地增加社会老年劳动供给。预期寿命延长对社会老年劳动供给的影响不确定,取决于缴费率的下调幅度。如果缴费率降至(12%,20%]区间内,预期寿命延长会引致社会老年劳动供给上升;而缴费率降至12%及以下,预期寿命与社会老年劳动供给之间呈倒U型关系,目前生存寿命已处于拐点的右边,这意味着养老保险降费存在政策目标上的"下限"。进一步地,本文证实了养老保险降费改革能否实现社会福利的帕累托改进和有效利用老年劳动力资源的双重目标,不仅取决于缴费率的下调幅度,而且依赖于退休年龄的调整。本文的政策启示是,随着预期寿命的延长,政府应顺势而为,积极探索缴费率与退休年龄的联动调整机制,以达到"珠联璧合"的实施效果。

By constructing an overlapping generation model including institutional structure and heterogeneity of workers'tirement decision-making,this paper examines the impact of life expectancy and pension insurance fee reduction on the supply of the elderly labors.Results show that due to the flexibility of the elderly labor supply outside the system,reducing the pension insurance rate can promote the elderly to delay their retirement,which is conducive to improving the social elderly labor supply.If workers in the system can also choose the working hours flexibly when they are old or the legal retirement age is extended,reducing the pension insurance rate can increase the social labor supply of the elderly.The impact of the extension of life expectancy on the social labor supply of the elderly is uncertain,which depends on the reduction of the payment rate.If the contribution rate falls to range of(12%,20%),the extension of life expectancy will lead to the increase of social labor supply for the elderly.However,if the contribution rate drops to 12%and below,there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between life expectancy and social labor supply for the elderly.At present,the life expectancy has been on the right side of the inflection point,which means that there is a"lower limit"on the policy goal of reducing pension insurance premiums.Further,this paper confirms that whether the pension insurance fee reduction reform can achieve the dual goals of Pareto improvement of social welfare and effective utilization of elderly labor resources depends not only on the reduction of payment rate,but also on the adjustment of retirement age.This paper suggests that with the extension of life expectancy,the govemment should follow the trend and actively explore the linkage adjustment mechanism between contribution rate and retirement age,so as to achieve the best implementation effect.