人口老龄化对我国金融发展的影响

The Impact of Population Aging on Financial Development in China

运用我国30个省份2007-2016年①的面板数据通过建立固定效应模型分析了人口老龄化对我国整体金融发展的影响。研究发现,人口老龄化的两个替代变量老龄率和老年抚养比对整体金融发展有一定的促进作用。但是各地区的这种影响存在异质性,东部地区的老龄率对金融发展有促进作用,但是老龄抚养比对金融发展却有抑制作用;中部地区的老龄化对金融发展的影响并不显著;西部地区的人口老龄化对金融发展有促进作用。因此,可以得出,人口老龄化可能会给我国的金融发展带来一定程度的正面促进作用,其作用机制是人口老龄化所带来的劳动人口的减少和老龄人保守型的投资偏好可能会倒逼金融机构摒弃旧的业务模式进行创新,促进养老金融的发展和养老行业的迅速兴起,这在一定程度上促进了我国的金融发展。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2007 to 2016,this paper analyzes the impact of population aging on China's overall financial development by establishing a fixed effect model.It is concluded that the aging rate and dependency ratio of the two alternative variables of population aging can promote the overall financial development to some extent.However,there is heterogeneity among different regions.The aging rate in eastern China promotes financial development,but the aging dependency ratio inhibits financial development.The aging of middle area has no significant influence on financial development.The aging of population in western China has a positive effect on financial development.As a result,we can conclude that an ageing population may bring to China's financial development degree of positive promoting effect,its mechanism of action is brought by the population aging of the workforce reduction and conservative investment preferences may be reversed transmission of financial institutions to abandon the old business model innovation,promote the development of pension financial and pension industry grew rapidly and this to a certain extent,promote the financial development in our country.