中国对外直接投资对“一带一路”沿线国家碳排放的影响——基于金融发展的门槛效应

Impact of China's Foreign Direct Investment on Carbon Emissions of Countries Along“the Belt and Road”Route——Based on the Threshold Effect of Financial Development

本文为探究中国OFDI对“一带一路”沿线国家碳排放的影响效应,纳入金融发展的不同维度,通过门槛模型探究其在中国OFDI影响“一带一路”沿线国家碳排放过程中的门槛效应。本文在理论机制分析的基础上,利用2003~2019年“一带一路”沿线34个国家的面板数据进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)整体上,我国对外直接投资促进了“一带一路”沿线国家碳排放。从影响效应来看,结构效应促进了碳排放规模的增加,而规模效应和技术效应均不显著;(2)异质性分析表明发达国家和OECD国家FDI对碳排放的促进作用更小;2013年“一带一路”倡议提出以后FDI对碳排放的促进作用更大;(3)门槛效应表明:金融发展规模和金融发展结构对FDI的碳排放效应分别存在单一门槛和双重门槛。

In order to explore the impact of China's OFDI on the carbon emissions of countries along“the Belt and Road”,and to further incorporate different dimensions of financial development,the threshold effect of China's OFDI on the carbon emissions of countries along“the Belt and Road”is explored through the threshold model.On the basis of theoretical mechanism analysis,this paper uses panel data of 34 countries along“the Belt and Road”from 2003 to 2019 to conduct empirical analysis.The results show that:(1)on the whole,China's OFDI promotes the carbon emission of countries along“the Belt and Road”.In terms of impact effect,structural effect promotes the increase of carbon emission scale,while scale effect and technology effect are not significant.(2)Heterogeneity analysis shows that FDI in developed countries and OECD countries has a smaller promoting effect on carbon emissions.Since“the Belt and Road”Initiative was proposed in 2013,FDI has played a greater role in promoting carbon emissions.(3)Threshold effect indicates that there is a single threshold and a double threshold for the carbon emission effect of financial development scale and financial development structure on FDI respectively.