地方债务与房价风险联动的理论维度、历史逻辑与现实路径

Theoretical Dimension, Historical Logic and Realistic Path of Linkage between Local Debt Risk and House Price

本文试图对我国地方政府债务与房价的风险联动机制提供一个逻辑解释,并从理论维度、历史逻辑和现实路径三个层面探究风险的叠加过程。金融市场风险向实体经济传导引致了金融周期与经济周期的叠加,而家庭、企业和公共债务是金融周期影响经济活动的重要渠道,具体表现为"债务-通缩"机制导致了地方政府债务与房价风险的叠加。在财政压力与政绩激励的交互驱动下,我国地方政府一直在寻求土地、债务融资等预算外收入以弥补财政收支缺口。土地市场价格上涨诱发的房地产市场繁荣,进一步催生了我国房地产金融属性,这为房价波动与地方政府债务规模之间的正向反馈效应奠定了现实基础,也强化了土地财政在地方政府债务与房价风险联动中的媒介作用。

This paper attempts to provide a logical explanation for the risk linkage mechanism between local government debt and housing prices in China, and explores the risk superposition process from three levels: theoretical dimension, historical logic and realistic path. The article holds that the transmission of financial market risks to the real economy leads to the superposition of financial cycle and economic cycle, while household, enterprise and public debt are the important channels through which the financial cycle affects economic activities, which shows that the "Debt-Deflation" mechanism leads to the superposition of local government debt risks and housing prices. Driven by the interaction of financial pressure and performance incentives, local governments in China have been seeking extra-budgetary income such as land and debt financing to make up for the gap in fiscal revenue and expenditure. The prosperity of the real estate market induced by the rising land market price further gave birth to the property of China′s real estate finance, which laid a realistic foundation for the positive feedback effect between the fluctuation of housing prices and the scale of local government debt, and also strengthened the path dependence of land finance as the linkage medium between local government debt risks and housing prices.