基金行为对国际原油期货市场的影响分析

Analysis of the impact of managed money on global crude futures market

基金是现代金融市场和大宗商品市场的重要参与者,近年来投资基金数量和资产规模显著增长,特别是在石油市场的投资规模不断增大,对国际油价变动产生了深刻影响,也使得石油的金融属性更加凸显。通过对全球投资基金及其在石油市场的投资情况的考察,研究了基金行为对国际油价的影响,并通过构建多元线性回归模型进行了实证分析。研究结果显示,影响原油期货价格的因素复杂多变,但随着基金持仓规模的不断扩大,基金的投机炒作行为已成为影响国际油价变动的直接因素之一。因此,在研究油价影响因素时,应高度重视基金仓位和投资策略变化,并对其进行持续跟踪研究。

Managed fund is an important participant in modern financial market and commodity market. In recent years,the number of funds and the scale of investment have increased significantly, especially in the global oil market. It has made a profound impact on oil price fluctuation and the financial property of crude oil is magnified. The paper conducts an in-depth study of investment fund and impact of managed money on global crude futures market as well as takes the empirical analysis through massive data collection and multiple linear regression model. The results show that the factors affecting crude oil futures prices are complex and speculation has become the direct influence of oil price fluctuation with the fund position continues to expand. Therefore, it is important to focus and continue tracking the position change and investment strategy of managed money in global oil futures market when studying the factors affecting oil prices.