从“五普”到“七普”:中国人口分布与经济增长的时空耦合和区域均衡发展

From the Fifth to the Seventh National Population Census in China:The Spatio-temporal Coupling of Population Distribution and Economic Growth as well as the Regional Balanced Development

基于我国第五次人口普查(简称“五普”)到第七次人口普查(简称“七普”)各省人口数据的比较分析,可以看出我国人口分布变化总体呈如下特征:一是按四区域分:2010年前后两个10年,我国东部沿海地区的人口占比都趋于提高,中部和东北地区的人口占比趋于下降,西部地区的人口占比从下降转变为略有上升;二是按胡焕庸线为界的两大半壁分,西北半壁的人口占比从略有上升转变为略有下降;三是按南北方分:北方地区的人口占比从略有上升转变为下降。结合普查年份的地区国内生产总值统计数据分析显示,人均GDP的省际差异总体来看趋于缩小;按四区域分,东部沿海地区的高差与中西部地区的低差趋于缩小,东北地区转变为明显低于全国平均水平;按胡焕庸线为界的两大半壁分,人均GDP的差距由缩小转变为扩大;按南北方分,2010—2020年人均GDP的差距明显扩大。在此基础上可以得出以下研究结论:其一,我国人口空间分布的格局呈现新变化,“北人南移”的现象及其影响需要引起高度重视;其二,我国人口空间分布格局与经济增长的区域均衡不断取得新进展,也不断面临新挑战;其三,我国人口分布变化与区域经济增长之间既有正向耦合、也有反向耦合;要顺应人口迁移流动客观趋势,进一步推动人口与经济社会的区域均衡协调发展。

The provincial-level comparison of the Seventh Census and the two previous Censuses shows that the overall patterns of the dynamics of population distribution in China in the two decades before and after 2010 are as follows.1.Based on the Four-Regions division,the population proportion of the East Coast tends to increase,the Central and Northeast China tends to decrease,and the Western China shifts from decline to a slight increase.2.Based on the two-parts division by the HU Huan-yong line,the population proportion in the northwest part experiences a slight growth to a decline.3.Based on the South-North division,the share of the northern population has changed from a slight rise to a decline.Combined with the regional GDP data in corresponding census years,it shows that the inter-provincial variance in GDP per Capita tends to shrink in general.1.For the Four Regions,the difference of the top two among the East Coast tends to decline,as well as the bottom two in the Central and the West,and the variance within the Northeast are significantly smaller than the national average.2.The gap of GDP per capita between the two sides of the HU Huan-yong line has changed from narrowing to widening.3.The gap of GDP per capita between the south and the north is widened significantly from 2010 to 2020.The main conclusions are as follows.1.New changes are found in the spatial pattern of population in China,among which high propriety should be given to the emerging of northerners’“Moving South”phenomenon and its impacts.2.New progress and new challenges coexist in the regional balance between the population spatial pattern and the economic growth in China.3.Both positive and negative couplings exist in the dynamics of China’s population distribution and regional economic growth.Therefore,we shall conform to the objective trend of current migration to improve the regional balanced development of population on the one hand and economy and society on the other.