1978—2018年中国事故灾难死亡人口时空分布特征

Spatiotemporal Changes of Accident-induced Mortality between 1978 and 2018 in China

为掌握中国事故灾难特征,从而为优化风险管理对策提供科学依据,基于可获得的我国各类事故灾难统计数据,从时间和空间两个角度分析了我国各类事故灾难死亡人口的时空分布特征。结果表明:(1)从时间上看,1990年以来,我国事故灾难总死亡人口先上升后下降,其中道路交通事故累计死亡人口最多;(2)受经济发展和安全管理政策的影响,改革开放以来以2003年为分界点我国道路交通事故死亡人口先上升后下降,工矿商贸事故死亡人口存在1994年和2003年两个峰值,火灾事故死亡人口在波动中下降且存在一定的周期性变化;(3)从空间上看,我国各类事故灾难百万人口死亡率存在明显的区域差异,西藏自治区、浙江省道路交通事故、火灾事故百万人口死亡率较高,贵州省、重庆市工矿商贸事故百万人口死亡率较高。基于研究结果对"十四五"期间我国安全生产防控重点和事故灾难统计制度的完善提出了具体建议。

In order to grasp the characteristics of various accidents in China and provide scientific basis for optimizing risk management countermeasures,based on the available statistical data,this paper analyzes the characteristics of accident-induced mortality of accidents in China from the perspectives of time and space.The results are as follows:(1)From the aspect of time,since 1990,the mortality of various accidents in China first increased and then decreased,among which the cumulative death of road traffic accidents was the largest.(2)Affected by the economic development and safety management policy,since reform and opening up,the number of various traffic accident-induced death in China first increased and then decreased with 2003 as the cut-off point.While the two peaks of the mortality of industrial,mining and commercial accidents appeared in 1993 and 2003,and the mortality of fire accidents decreased in fluctuation with a certain periodicity in million-population.(3)From the aspect of space,there are obvious regional differences in the million-population mortality of various accidents in China.The mortality rate of traffic accidents of million people in Tibet Autonomous Region and Zhejiang Province is higher,while the overall mortality rate of industrial accidents in Guizhou and Chongqing is higher.Based on the research results,the paper puts forward some suggestions on the key points to control work safety and the way to improve statistical system of accidents in China during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period.