货币政策不确定性与企业现金持有——现金股利视角的新解释

Uncertainty of Monetary Policy and Corporate Cash Holdings:New Explanation with Cash Dividends

研究利用中国A股上市公司样本,系统探讨了货币政策不确定性对企业现金持有策略的影响。研究发现:随着货币政策不确定性的提高,企业现金持有水平降低。深入研究发现货币政策不确定性对企业现金持有策略的影响主要通过现金股利渠道发挥作用,即在货币政策不确定性较高时期,企业持有的现金更多用于支持现金股利分配,籍此向市场传递积极信号。进一步研究排除了投资机会与代理成本等潜在干扰因素的影响,并且结合产权性质差异的分析发现货币政策不确定性对于非国有企业现金持有策略的影响更为明显。研究一方面基于不确定性视角为货币政策如何影响企业现金管理策略提出了新解释——现金股利渠道,有助于更好地理解我国上市公司的现金持有策略;另一方面也说明货币政策频繁调整所导致的货币政策不确定性很可能是加剧实体经济经营风险的宏观诱因。

This paper investigates the impact of the uncertainty of monetary policy on the incentive of cash holdings based on the sample of A-shares listed firms of China in 2004-2015.We find that the association between the uncertainty of monetary policy and the cash holdings is significantly negative.Further study shows that the negative association is resulted from the increasing sensitivity of cash dividends to cash holdings with the increased uncertainty of monetary policy,which implies that firms use cash dividends as signals.Additional tests eliminate the potential effects of investment opportunity and agency costs and provides evidence that the negative association between the uncertainty of monetary policy and corporate cash holdings is more significant in non-state-owned companies.Our study not only raises a new explanation of cash dividend for corporate cash holdings incentives,but also suggests that the frequent adjustment of monetary policy,which increased the uncertainty of monetary policy,may be one of the reasons that caused the increasing risks of the real economy.