我国研究生规模扩展是惯性依赖还是需求驱动

Is the Scale of Postgraduate Expansion Inertia-Dependent or Demand-Driven in China

本研究通过省际面板数据,实证分析我国研究生教育规模变化的惯性驱动与社会需求驱动,并进行分学历层次和分地区的分析。研究分析发现,当前我国的研究生招生规模变化存在明显的惯性驱动,且博士研究生规模的惯性更大。然而研究生招生规模的变化没有很好回应经济和科技发展的需求,这在博士层次尤其明显。本研究认为,目前我国的研究生规模变化更多是基于惯性驱动,而经济、科技的需求驱动没有得到很好的回应。为此,文章提出我国研究生未来规模的变化应该更好地满足经济与科技的需求,尤其需要改善的是研究生招生规模特别是博士招生规模与科技发展之间的匹配关系。

Based on provincial panel data,this study empirically analyzes the inertia-driven and social demand-driven changes in the scale of postgraduate education in China,and carries out analysis by academic level and by region.The empirical analysis reveals that there is an obvious inertia-driven change in the current scale of postgraduate enrollment in China,and the inertia is greater for the scale of doctoral students.However,the changes of graduate enrollment scale have not responded well to the needs of economic and technological development,which is particularly evident at the doctoral level.Summarizing the above empirical findings,this study argues that the current changes in the scale of postgraduate students in China are more driven by inertia,while the demand-driven by economy,science and technology has not been well responded.This study argues that the future changes in the scale of postgraduate students in China should be able to better meet the needs of economy,science and technology.What needs to be improved in particular is the matching relationship between the scale of postgraduate enrollment,especially the scale of doctoral enrollment,and the development of science and technology.