财政支出类型和货币政策规则的组合效应及稳定性研究

Study on the Combination Effect and Stability of Fiscal Expenditure Types and Monetary Policy Rules

本文基于动态随机一般均衡视角,将财政支出类型和货币政策规则纳入DSGE模型中,讨论了财政支出类型与货币政策规则组合的有效性及稳定性。结果表明,第一,积极的财政支出有利于熨平政府支出冲击对投资的影响,温和的财政支出有利于熨平政府支出和政府债务的波动,而产出和通货膨胀对财政支出类型变动的反应不大。第二,在货币政策规则调整过程中,面对政府支出冲击,货币政策更倾向于采取价格型规则为主、数量型规则为辅的混合型规则;面对货币政策冲击,单一的数量型规则更有效。第三,从财政支出类型与货币政策规则的组合效应来看,积极的财政支出与混合型货币政策组合规则最有效,且不同目标下组合效应存在差异;从社会福利损失来看,三目标的社会福利损失大于双目标。第四,在1998—2019年期间,中国财政政策与货币政策的组合遵循PMPF范式,说明财政政策稳定、货币政策不稳定,此时货币政策被动配合财政政策以保证预算约束平衡。

Fiscal policy and monetary policy have always been two important means of macroeconomic regulation.The purpose of this study is to analyze the policy effect under different types of fiscal expenditure and different monetary policy rules,as well as the policy effect of the combination of fiscal expenditure type and monetary policy rules.From the perspective of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium,this paper puts fiscal expenditure types and monetary policy rules into DSGE model,and discusses the effectiveness and stability of the combination of fiscal expenditure types and monetary policy rules.The results show that,firstly,positive fiscal expenditures are conducive to smoothing the fluctuations in investment from government expenditure shocks.moderate fiscal expenditures are more conducive to smoothing the fluctuations in government expenditures and government debt.However,output and inflation do not respond much to changes in fiscal expenditure types.Secondly,in the transformation process of monetary policy rules,with the impact of government expenditures,it is more inclined to adopt a mixed rule which is to supplement price-based rules with quantity-based rules.However,with the impact of monetary policy,a single quantity-based rule is more effective.Thirdly,from the perspective of the combination effect of fiscal expenditure type and monetary policy rules,the combination of positive fiscal expenditure and mixed monetary policy rules is the most effective,with different combined effects under different goals.From the perspective of social welfare losses,the social welfare loss under the three goals is greater than that under the two goals.Fourthly,the combination of China's fiscal policy and monetary policy follows the PMPF paradigm.Based on the above conclusions,three suggestions are put forward.Firstly,building an efficient and coordinated fiscal policy and monetary policy framework to perfect the macro-regulation system.Secondly,setting reasonable goals to ensure policy implementation effect.Thirdly,While implementing fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize the macro economy,the Central Bank of China should increase its independence and enhance the autonomy and responsibility of monetary policy formulation and implementation.