补充银行资本能调节贷款供给吗?

May Bank Capital Replenishment Help Regulate the Supply of Loans?

本文研究了银行补充一级资本对银行贷款供给的影响。通过模型证明,一般情况下,补充资本会推动银行提高贷款增速,效果受银行资本调整成本和银行自身特征的影响,前者与资本工具发行门槛有关,后者与不良贷款率有关。若发行资本工具门槛过高或不良贷款率较高,银行补充资本不一定会增加贷款供给。本文基于2013—2019年151家国内商业银行数据建立GMM模型和固定效应模型,实证结果表明,银行一级资本工具对贷款增速有显著的正向影响,但不同类别的一级资本工具对贷款增速的影响不同,永续债等门槛较低的其他一级资本工具对贷款增速的正面影响更强,门槛高的公开股份发行对贷款增速的作用效果不显著。一级资本补充对"好银行"贷款增速的作用效果更强,不良贷款率高、资本充足率低会削弱补充资本对贷款扩张的促进作用。国有大行、中小银行补充一级资本可以有效提高贷款增速,但股份制银行补充一级资本对贷款增速的影响不显著。本文研究认为,中央银行调节对银行的资本约束可以作为一种货币政策工具。

This paper examines the impact of bank Tier 1 capital replenishment on the supply of bank loans.The model demonstrates that capital replenishment generally drives banks to increase loan supply,and the moderating effect on loan supply depends on two factors:banks'capital adjustment costs and banks'own characteristics.The cost of capital adjustment is related to the capital instrument threshold,and the bank's own characteristics are mainly the non-performing loan ratio;if the capital instrument threshold is too high or the non-performing loan ratio is high,banks'capital replenishment may not increase loan supply.This paper builds a GMM model and a fixed-effect model based on the data from 151 domestic commercial banks from 2013 to 2019,and the empirical results show the following findings:bank Tier 1 capital replenishment has a significant positive effect on loan growth,but different capital instruments have different effects on loan growth.Tier 1 capital instruments with lower threshold such as perpetual bonds have a stronger positive effect on loan expansion,while the impact of public shares issuance on loan expansion is not significant.The effect of Tier 1 capital instruments on loan expansion growth is stronger for“good banks”,while high NPL ratios and low capital adequacy ratios reduce the contribution of capital replenishment to loan growth.Large state-owned banks and small and medium-sized banks can effectively increase loan size by replenishing Tier 1 capital,but the effect of Tier 1 capital replenishment on loan size is insignificant for joint-stock banks.The conclusion is that central bank's regulation of capital constraints on banks can be used as a monetary policy tool.