新时代中美关系的发展趋势

The Development Trend of Sino-U.S.Relations in the New Era

随着中美两国都认定自己进入"新时代",两国开始重新审视对方以及双边关系,从而导致中美关系也"进入新时代"。中美关系在新时代既不同于以合作为主旋律的"昨天",更不同于冷战对抗状态的"前天"。新时代中美关系的主旋律是战略竞争,双方互为战略竞争对手。这种战略竞争对手不同于冷战对抗的敌人。中美战略竞争应当是可控的、良性的、建设性的竞争;竞争并不排斥合作。在中美关系的新时代,双方在地缘政治、意识形态、经济和人文、全球治理这四个领域的竞争将趋于强化,而合作趋于弱化,从而导致中美战略竞争总体上将十分激烈并呈持久战态势。中美战略竞争不会滑向新冷战,其原因除了中国的主观能动作用外,更重要的是世界大势的制约。世界多极化、经济全球化、和平与发展时代主题、全球政治觉醒等世界大势对新时代中美关系发挥着不可忽视的塑造作用。

As both China and the United States believe that they have entered a new era,the two countries began to re-examine each other and their bilateral relations,which led to Sino-U.S.relations entering a new period.In the new era,Sino-U.S.relations are different not only from the cooperativebased one which could be called"yesterday,"but also from the"day before yesterday"of the Cold War confrontation.The main theme of the SinoUS relations in the new era is strategic competition,and the two sides are strategic rivals of each other.This strategic rivalry is different than the confrontation during the Cold War.The strategic competition between China and the United States should be controllable,benign and constructive and does not exclude cooperation.In the new era,the competition between the two sides will tend to intensify in four areas,including geopolitics,ideology,economics and humanities,and global governance,resulting in a fierce and lasting strategic overall competition between China and the United States.The reason why the strategic competition between China and the United States will not slip into a new Cold War is not only China’s subjective actions,but also the constraints of general world trends.World trends such as multi-polarization,economic globalization,an era of peace and development,and global political awakening all play an important role in shaping Sino-U.S.relations in the new era.