构建国内国际经济双循环的政治经济学投入产出分析

A Political Economy Input-Output Analysis of the Domestic-International Dual Economic Circulation

研究目标:理论上分析经济全球化的历史进程中逆全球化浪潮偶有发生的成因,经验上以中美贸易摩擦为例评估当前中国经济面临的逆全球化风险。研究方法:基于马克思主义政治经济学生产性与非生产性劳动的区分,资本积累理论及世界投入产出分析法的假设退出模型,使用世界投入产出数据库及中美2018~2019年双边贸易数据。研究发现:资本积累的矛盾是逆全球化浪潮出现的原因,当前以加征关税为主要手段的中美贸易争端对两国总体经济的影响有限,对中国的负面冲击处于可控范围以内。然而,如果中美停止商品贸易,中国经济增长速度将因此损失约2.5个百分点,新增失业人口将高达千万人以上。研究创新:基于全球生产、分配体系定量考察当前中国经济面临的外部风险。研究价值:揭示了中国短期应充分做好应对潜在的逆全球化冲击的准备,长期应降低外贸对单一国家的依赖,强化多边贸易关系,构建高质量、低风险的国内国际经济新格局。

Research Objectives:We theoretically investigate the causes of reverse-globalization and empirically use the current US-China trade conflict as an example to evaluate the risk of reverse-globalization that China is exposed to.Research Methods:We base our analysis on the Marxian distinction between productive and unproductive activities,the Marxian theory of capital accumulation,and the hypothetical extraction method of input-output analysis.We use the World Input-output Database and the 2018~2019 bilateral trade data between the United States and China.Research Findings:We find that the theoretical root of reverse-globalization lies in the fundamental contradictions of capitalist accumulation,and,empirically,the current tariff war only causes manageable harm to the Chinese economy despite minor gains to the US;however,if the trade conflict were to escalate to such an extent that the two countries completely halt their trade in goods as suggested by President Trump,the growth rate of the Chinese economy will lose 2.5 percentage points with over ten million job loss.Research Innovations:We situate the China economy in the world production and distribution network and quantitatively evaluate its external risks.Research Value:We reveal that,in the short run,China should prepare for the potential negative impact from similar reverse-globalization events,while in the long run should reduce the reliance of trade with any single country,and foster multi-lateral trade relations to build a high-quality but low-risk domestic-international dual economic circulation.