自由贸易试验区建设与中国出口行为

The Construction of the Pilot Free Trade Zone and Chinese Exports

自由贸易试验区建设是中国搭建全面开放新平台与引领高质量发展新载体的一项重要战略举措。本文基于2007—2018年中国海关数据与《中国城市统计年鉴》数据,以自由贸易试验区的实施片区为分组依据,构建多期双重差分模型,探讨自由贸易试验区建设对中国出口及出口结构的影响。研究表明:(1)自由贸易试验区建设促进城市产品出口增长11.71%;产品出口增长主要体现在数量边际和扩展边际,价格边际无显著变动。(2)自由贸易试验区建设推动出口增长主要源于本地城市的贸易创造效应,对周围城市出口没有显著影响。(3)自由贸易试验区建设暂未有效带动出口方式由加工贸易向一般贸易的结构转变,同时在出口产业结构调整方面的效应也尚未显现,但自由贸易试验区建设与"一带一路"建设对出口增长存在联动效应。政府在出台相关制度创新政策方面应进一步注重结构化调整,以更好发挥自由贸易试验区建设在转变经济增长方式与优化经济结构进程中的作用。

The construction of Pilot Free Trade Zone(PFTZ)is a significant strategic step to build a new platform of all-round opening and lead a new carrier of high-quality development under the new situation of China’s economic development.Using the Chinese Custom data and urban statistical yearbook data over the period 2007—2018,this paper tries to investigate the impact of the PFTZ on Chinese total exports and exporting structure,based on a multiple difference-in-differences method which takes the cities of the PFTZ implementation as the treated groups.The results show that:(1)The construction of the PFTZ increases the total exports by 11.71 percentages,and the increase in exports is explained mostly by the increase in quantity margin and extensive margin,with prices relatively unchanged.(2)The export growth promoted by the construction of the PFTZ is mainly due to the trade creation effect of the local cities,but has no significant impact on the exports of the surrounding cities.(3)The construction of the PFTZ has not promoted the structural transformation of the exporting mode from processing trade to general trade and not accelerated the adjustment of the industrial structure of exporting yet.However,the construction of the PFTZ has an interactive effect with the Belt and Road Initiative on promoting Chinese exports.The government should pay more attention to the structural adjustment in the institutional innovation,so as to take full advantage of the PFTZ in the process of transforming the economic growth pattern and optimizing the economic structure.