土地的区域间配置与新发展格局——基于量化空间均衡的研究

Spatial Allocation of Land and New Development Pattern——Based on the Analysis of Quantitative Spatial Equilibrium

"优化国土空间布局"是实现高质量发展和新发展格局的重要内容。2003年以来,中国城镇建设用地供应逐步向中西部省份倾斜,东部地区土地供应则逐步受到压缩。这一土地配置趋势明显地缩小了区域差距,但潜在地带来了资源错配,并抬高了东部地区的房价。本文基于量化空间模型,将地区数据匹配至一般均衡框架,较好地刻画了中国区域间房价分化的特征事实,并对中国土地的区域间配置进行量化评估。首先,本文考察了最优土地配置策略。最大化GDP的方式倾向于对东部发达省份配置更多的土地,这一策略可以同时抑制东部地区城市房价上涨,但不可避免地扩大了区域间人均收入差距;最小化区域间人均收入差距的方式难以显著提高GDP。其次,本文发现,现实中的土地配置方式在"效率"和"公平"上找到了一个良好的平衡点,既实现了GDP和总福利的显著提升,又明显缩小了区域间人均收入差距。最后,针对土地配置中存在的"效率"和"公平"两难问题,本文结合"新发展格局下畅通国内市场生产、分配、流通环节"的政策内涵展开了政策模拟,在生产要素的配置优化方面提出了"土地配置与户籍制度改革相结合"的政策建议,在产品和服务的流通方面提出了"畅通国内贸易"的政策建议。

Optimizing the spatial allocation of land is an important part of achieving high-quality development and a new development pattern.Since 2003,the allocation of urban construction land supply has gradually tilted to the central and western provinces,while the land supply in eastern provinces has gradually been compressed.This land allocation trend has obviously narrowed the regional gap,but it has potentially led to resource misallocations and soaring housing prices in the eastern region.Based on the quantitative spatial model,this paper matches the regional data to a general equilibrium framework,which could well replicate the fact of the differentiation in housing prices among regions.We use this framework to quantitatively evaluate the effect of regional land allocations.Firstly,under the investigation of the optimal land allocations,we find that the way to maximize GDP tends to allocate more land to the eastern developed provinces.But this allocation strategy inevitably expands the per capita income gaps between regions.In addition,the way to minimize the gap in per capita income between regions is difficult to increase GDP significantly.Secondly,this article finds that the real land allocation in China has found a good balance between"efficiency"and"fairness",which not only achieves a significant increase in GDP and total welfare,but also significantly reduces the regional per capita income gap.Finally,in response to the dilemma of"efficiency"and"fairness"in land allocation,we take the new development pattern into consideration.Based on the policy simulations,this paper proposes two policy suggestions:one is the combination of the land allocation and household registration system reform,while the other is the unblocking of the domestic trade to boost the internal circulation.