中国人口老龄化对制造业转型升级的影响

Research on the Impact of China’s Population Aging on Transformation and Upgrading of the Manufacturing Industry

文章在分析人口老龄化对制造业转型升级影响机理的基础上,运用结构方程模型进行实证检验。结果表明:(1)老龄化通过减少劳动力供给,迫使企业用资本和技术替代劳动;(2)人均寿命延长引发的"预防动机"和老年人的"遗赠动机"促进资本积累;(3)预期寿命增加、子女减少、老年劳动力知识和经验积累,以及工资议价能力提高,会加强人力资本投资;(4)老龄化带来的要素禀赋改变和人力资本投资效应有利于技术创新。从长期动态看,劳动力供给减少、资本积累、人力资本投资和技术创新均会促进制造业转型升级。虽然老年人收入水平降低,"预防性"和"遗赠性"储蓄导致的消费动力不足会减少消费需求,对制造业转型升级产生负面影响,但总体上中国人口老龄化促进制造业转型升级。

Based on theoretical analysis of the influence mechanism of population aging on the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, the paper uses structural equation model to conduct empirical tests and obtains following results.(1) Aging forces enterprises to replace labor with capital and technology by reducing the supply of labor.(2) The"preventive motivation"caused by the extension of life expectancy and the"bequeath motivation"of the elderly can promote capital accumulation.(3) Increase in life expectancy, reduction of children, accumulation of knowledge and experience of the elderly labor force, and increasing wage bargaining power will strengthen human capital investment.(4) The effect of factor endowments and human capital investment are conducive to technological innovation. In the long-term dynamics, the reduction in labor supply, capital accumulation, human capital investment and technological innovation will promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry. Although the decline in the income level of the elderly and the lack of consumption motivation caused by"preventive"and"legacy"savings will reduce consumer demand and have a negative impact on the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, population aging as a whole is promotive.