产业结构升级、技术创新与绿色全要素生产率——基于异质性视角的研究

Industrial Structure, Technological Innovation and Green Total Factor Productivity:Research in the Perspective of Heterogeneity

文章在核算各省2000~2018年绿色全要素生产率的基础上,引入有限混合模型,分析产业结构升级和技术创新对绿色全要素生产率影响的异质性特征。研究发现:(1)中国的产业结构升级和技术创新对绿色全要素生产率有正向影响,且存在显著的省际差异。(2)根据影响的差异性特征,可将所有省份划分为"领先型""追赶型"和"落后型"3种模式。"领先型"模式的绿色全要素生产率最高,其产业结构升级和技术创新对绿色全要素生产率的促进作用也最大,另两种模式依次递减。"领先型"模式的人力资本和城镇化水平提高后,能有效促进产业结构升级和技术创新对绿色全要素生产率的提升;"落后型"模式劳动力数量和城镇化水平提高后,反而会阻滞产业结构升级和技术创新对绿色全要素生产率的正向影响。(3)2000~2018年近一半的省份从"追赶型"和"落后型"转变为"领先型",人力资本水平和城镇化水平的提高是促使这些省份发生模式转换的关键因素。

Based on the accounting of green total factor productivity(GTFP) of China’s provinces from 2000 to 2018, this paper analyzes the heterogeneous characteristics of the impact of industrial structure upgrading and technological innovation on GTFP, and introduces demographic factors to explain it. The results show firstly that China’s industrial structure upgrading and technological innovation have a positive influence on GTFP, but this influence has significant differences among provinces. Secondly, according to the different characteristics of the influence, provinces can be objectively classified into 3 types, i.e. leading type, catch-up type and backward type. The leading type have the highest GTFP, and their industrial structure upgrading and technological innovation also play the largest role in promoting GTFP. The others are degressive. The improvement of human capital and urbanization level of the leading type can effectively promote industrial structure upgrading and technological innovation to enhance GTFP, while the increase of the labor force and the level of urbanization of the backward type will hinder it. In addition, nearly half of the provinces transformed from catch-up type and backward type to leading type. The promotion of human capital and urbanization are the key factors of the transformation.