德国介入南海问题的主要特点与战略考量

The Main Characteristics and Strategic Considerations of Germany's Intervention in the South China Sea Issue

随着近年来南海局势的发展,特别是围绕南海问题中美博弈的加深,美国的盟友和伙伴相继介入南海问题进程。在南海问题上,德国总体保持战略审慎与克制,包括坚持多边主义,重视国际司法手段,秉持中立立场,且与英法两国的南海政策存在差异,是潜在的影响力量。然而,近年来德国对南海问题的介入程度呈逐渐加深态势。德国介入南海问题主要出于应对来自美国的联盟压力和法国的伙伴压力,以及维护海上战略通道安全的考虑。而中德密切的经贸关系、德国国内的政治生态以及德国海洋战略等因素则限制德国进一步介入南海问题。展望未来,默克尔之后的德国外交政策将迎来调整空间,不过默克尔时期“基于经济的非对抗主义”政策大概率继续主导中德关系,德国对南海问题的介入也难以超越现有的框架。

With the situation developed in the South China Sea in recent years,especially the deepening of the game between China and the United States around the South China Sea issue,the Allies and partners of the United States successively intervened in the process of intervening in the South China Sea issue.Germany is a potential influence on the South China Sea issue.Germany has generally maintained strategic prudence and restraint on the South China Sea issue,including adherence to multilateralism,emphasis on international judicial means,upholding a neutral position,and being different from the South China Sea policy of Britain and France.But in recent years Germany's intervention in the South China Sea issue has shown a trend of gradually deepening.Germany's intervention in the South China Sea issue mainly stems from the consideration of responding to alliance pressure from the United States and partner pressure from France,as well as maintaining the security of strategic maritime channels.However,the close economic and trade relations between China and Germany,Germany's domestic political factors and Germany's maritime strategy limit Germany's further intervention in the South China Sea issue.Looking into the future,Germany's foreign policy after Merkel will have room for adjustment,but the“economy-based non-confrontation”during Merkel's period will likely continue to dominate China-German relations,and Germany's intervention in the South China Sea issue will hardly go beyond the existing framework.