第五次国际产业转移中的中国与东南亚:比较优势与政策选择

China and Southeast Asian Countries in the Fifth International Industrial Transfer:Comparative Advantages and Policy Options

在多重因素影响下,近年来以制造业为主的部分在华企业逐步将产能转移至生产成本更具优势的东南亚国家,由此开启了第五次国际产业转移的序幕。对比发现,尽管当前东南亚在人力和物料成本方面较中国具有一定竞争力,但仍存在诸多短板。鉴于域内国家经济水平和承载能力有限,未来产业转移如何影响地区整体产业发展与经贸合作,在很大程度取决于中国与各国的互动模式。可以预见,新一轮国际产业进程将在后疫情时代的亚太经济复苏中延续,并为地区乃至全球经济复苏持续发挥重要作用。对于参与其中并扮演关键角色的中国而言,应当审慎评估区域发展合作形势并精准施策,在不断完善国内营商环境的基础上,充分发挥“一带一路”平台优势,深化同东南亚国家基于优势互补的产能合作,着力构建更具风险抵抗能力、集约化和协调性更强的区域产业集群,促进产业转移良性发展并惠及各方。

Under the influence of multiple factors,some enterprises in China,mainly in the manufacturing industry,have gradually shifted their production capacity to Southeast Asian countries where production costs are more advantageous in recent years,thus launching the fifth international industrial transfer.Based on thorough comparison analyses,this essay argues that although certain Southeast Asian countries possess relative advantages over China in terms of labor and material costs,but there are still many obvious shortcomings.Given the limited economic level and carrying capacity of the countries in the region,how the future industrial transfer will affect the overall industrial development and economic and trade cooperation in the Southeast Asian countries will largely depend on the mode of interaction between China and the countries.It is foreseeable that the fifth international industrial process will continue in the Asia-Pacific economic recovery in the post-epidemic era and continue to play an important role in the regional and global economic recovery.Therefore,for China,which plays a key role in this process,it should give the full play of the potential of the Belt and Road initiative,and push forward even more concrete cooperation with concerning Southeast Asian countries.In this way,all parties involved can work together to ensure that the industrial transfer profess can be beneficial for all.