基于Lotka-Volterra模型的区域水资源安全测度

Measurement of regional water resources security based on Lotka-Volterra model

为促进区域水资源合理利用、实现可持续发展提供理论依据,基于DPSIR模型构建水资源安全综合评价指标体系,利用熵权法确定指标权重,引入Lotka-Volterra共生模型对2010—2018年安徽省水资源安全状态进行定量测度。研究结果表明:2010—2018年,安徽省水资源安全从危险状态提升至警惕状态,且长期处于社会经济获利而水资源受损的偏害发展模式。研究区内各市水资源安全状态存在差异,2018年的数据分析结果显示,16个地级市中宿州为危险状态,淮北和蚌埠为不佳状态,池州为敏感状态,合肥、亳州、阜阳、滁州、六安、芜湖、宣城以及安庆为警惕状态,马鞍山、铜陵和黄山达到安全状态,皖南、皖中地区的水资源安全状态明显好于皖北地区。因此,在未来发展中需要采取相应措施提高水资源安全状态,促进区域健康发展。

Aiming at providing theoretical basis for promoting the rational use of regional water resources and realizing sustainable development, this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for water resources security based on DPSIR model, uses the entropy method to determine the index weights, and introduces the Lotka-Volterra symbiosis model to measure the water resources security status of Anhui Province quantitatively during 2010-2018. The results show that: The water resources security state of Anhui Province has increased from dangerous to vigilant during 2010-2018, and it has been in a disadvantageous development mode of social and economic gains and water damage for a long time. The development of water resources security status differs among 16 prefecture-level cities according to the results in 2018. Suzhou is in a dangerous state. Huaibei and Bengbu are in a poor state. Chizhou is in a sensitive state. Hefei, Bozhou, Fuyang, Chuzhou, Lu′an, Wuhu, Xuancheng, and Anqing are in a state of vigilance. Ma′anshan, Tongling and Huangshan have reached a safe state, and the water resources security in southern and central region is significantly better than that in northern region. Therefore, it is necessary to take corresponding measures to improve the safety of water resources and promote the healthy development in the future.