年度报告的可读性水平、过往业绩与分析师预测

The Readability of Annual Report,Past performance and Earnings Forecast by Analysts

以我国2007—2018年的公司年报为样本,从普通中文文本复杂性和专业词汇密集度两个层面度量上市公司年报文本的可读性水平,研究发现:我国分析师在整体上对可读性水平低的年报采取了本能的“防御”措施,在盈利预测中对复杂年报的态度更加谨慎,且复杂年报确实加大了分析师预测的分歧程度;作为盈利预测的基准,过往业绩水平具有功能锁定效应,在年报文本可读性对分析师预测的影响关系中发挥了调节作用。进一步研究发现,分析师的专业能力在解读复杂年报和摆脱过往业绩的功能锁定效应中发挥了重要作用。

We measure annual reports’readability by the standard text's complexity and the intensity of professional concepts.Based on the annual report data from 2007 to 2018,we found that analysts are more cautious with complex reports,and complex reports always increase the divergence of earnings forecasts.However,as a benchmark for earnings forecasts,past performance has a functional fixation effect on the relationship between the annual reports’readability and analysts'forecasts.Further research proved that professional skills play an essential role in interpreting complex reports and avoiding past performance's functional fixation effects.