中国2021年第一季度马铃薯市场价格分析及后市预测

Price Analysis of Potato Market in the First Quarter and Future Forecast in 2021 of China

通过查阅全国农产品批发市场价格信息系统中全国马铃薯的即时价格,将全国2021年第一季度马铃薯价格波动作为主要的研究方向,并结合价格需求弹性和蛛网理论等经济学原理对第一季度马铃薯价格走势进行分析和研究。以采集的数据为基础,绘制出先上升后下降的价格走势,并按月份进行原因分析,随后,借助马铃薯的月均成交量来进一步反映马铃薯价格波动的原因。最后,将2019~2021年全国马铃薯第一季度的价格数据进行比较,科学合理地对2021年第二季度的马铃薯价格走势做出了预测。认为总体价格走势为:4月上升压力较大,将维持现有价格水平波动,5~6月价格稍有下降。

The potato price fluctuations in the first quarter of 2021 nationwide were taken as the main research direction through accessing the national instant price of potatoes in the National Agricultural Wholesale Market Price Information System,and the price trend of potato in the first quarter was analyzed and studied by combining the economic principles of price demand elasticity and cobweb theory.Based on the collected data,the price trend of rising and then falling was plotted,and the reasons were analyzed by month.Then,the monthly transaction volume of potato was used to further reflect the reason of potato price fluctuation.Finally,the price data of the first quarter of Chinese potato was compared from 2019 to 2021,and the price trend of potato in the second quarter of 2021 was predicted scientifically and reasonably.The overall price trend is considered as the followings:the upward pressure in April would maintain the current price level fluctuations,but prices drop slightly from May to June.