发展中国家金融化与中国的抵御探索

FINANCIALIZATION OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND CHINA’S EXPERIENCE OF RESISTANCE

本文尝试在发展模式与外部经济依赖性相互作用的分析框架内来分析中国经济从抵御金融化到出现金融化趋势的过程。本文认为发展中国家金融化和频繁的债务金融危机源自本国发展模式与外部经济依赖性相互作用下金融扩张与生产性积累的背离。对于中国而言,在政府有效的产业政策和渐进的金融政策引导下形成的工业化主导的发展模式,能够不断解决经济发展矛盾,同时完备的工业体系和谨慎的金融开放政策减轻了中国对世界经济体系的依赖,使其得以抵御金融化和危机。但2008年全球金融危机后,中国发展模式面临新的矛盾并且对外部经济依赖性逐渐增强,出现了经济金融化的趋势,将对中国经济和金融体系的稳定性带来巨大的挑战。中国政府已经意识到金融化风险,在近年来出台了一系列政策,以期引导资金"脱虚向实",并取得了一些成效,但金融化风险尚未根除,中国经济未来的发展仍需要政府制定行之有效的政策积极引导金融和实体经济的协调发展。

This paper attempts to analyze the process of China’s economy from resisting financialization to the emergence of financialization within the framework of the interaction of development modes and external economic dependence. This paper believes that the financialization and frequent debt financial crises of developing countries originate from the deviation of financial expansion and productive accumulation under the interaction of domestic development modes and external economic dependence. In terms of China, the industrialization-led development mode formed under the guidance of the government’s effective industrial policies and gradual financial policies can continuously resolve contradictions in economic development. At the same time, a complete industrial system and a prudent financial opening policy alleviate China’s dependence on the world economic system, which made it possible for China to resist financialization and crises. However, after the 2008 global financial crisis, China’s development mode has been facing new contradictions and its dependence on the external economy has been gradually increasing. The trend of financialization has appeared, which will bring huge challenges to the stability of China’s economy and financial system. The Chinese government has been aware of the risks of financialization and has introduced a series of policies in recent years to guide money flow into real sectors and has made some achievements. However, the risks of financialization have not yet been eradicated, and it is necessary that the Chinese government formulates effective policies to guide the coordinated development of finance and the real economy.