资本账户开放与国际金融冲击的传导——基于DSGE模型的分析

CAPITAL ACCOUNT LIBERALIZATION AND THE TRANSMISSION OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SHOCKS——Analysis Based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium

本文在动态随机一般均衡的框架下,建立了一个包括贸易部门和非贸易部门的小型开放经济模型,系统研究和比较资本管制与资本账户开放两种情况下,国外金融冲击、出口需求冲击对中国经济的不同影响和传导机制,并检验资本账户开放情形下应对国际冲击时不同货币政策规则的有效性。结果发现:当资本账户开放时,一国受到国外冲击的波动幅度远大于资本管制的情况;资本管制和资本账户开放对国际金融冲击传导机制的关键差异在于贸易部门与非贸易部门的互动关系,具体表现为劳动力转移的差异;在资本账户开放后,面对不同形式的国际冲击,货币数量型规则和混合型规则均能有效熨平经济波动。

This paper establishes a small open economy model that includes trade and non-trade sectors in the framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium. We systematically study and compare the different effects and transmission mechanisms of China’s economy with foreign financial shocks and export demand shocks under the circumstances of capital control and capital account liberalization, and test the effectiveness of different monetary policy rules in response to international shocks in the context of capital account liberalization. We find that the economy fluctuations of countries with capital account liberalization after suffering foreign shocks are much greater than that of capital controls. The key difference between capital control and capital account liberalization to foreign financial shock transmission mechanisms lies in the interaction between the trade sector and the non-trade sector, specifically in labor transfer. After the liberalization of the capital account, both monetary quantity rules and mixed rules can effectively smooth economic fluctuations in the face of different forms of international shocks.