过度投资与股价崩盘风险--基于经营与财务风险的路径影响

Over Investment and Stock Price Collapse Risk:Path Influence Based on Operation and Financial Risk

文章以2010—2019年A股上市公司为样本,实证探究企业过度投资对股价崩盘的影响,并创新性地将经营风险和财务风险指标作为中介变量来考察两者的作用路径。研究发现:企业过度投资会推动股价崩盘风险的增长,且财务风险作为中介变量的路径效果更为显著;进一步对比发现,在内部控制质量差、机构持股比例高、国有产权背景以及牛市环境这四个组别中,过度投资引致的股价崩盘风险更加显著。文章在丰富股价崩盘影响因素以及过度投资危害研究的同时,以新视角为上市公司过度投资与股价崩盘风险之间的互动关联及其路径研究补充了经验证据。

Taking A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2019 as a sample,this paper empirically explores the impact of enterprise over investment on stock price collapse,and creatively takes operational risk and financial risk indicators as in⁃termediary variables to investigate their action path.It is found that over investment will promote the growth of stock price collapse risk,and the path effect of financial risk as an intermediary variable is more significant;further comparison shows that the risk of stock price collapse caused by over investment is more significant in the four groups of poor internal control quality,high institutional shareholding ratio,state-owned property right background,and bull market environment.While enriching the research on the influencing factors of stock price collapse and the harm of over investment,this paper supplements empirical evidence for the interactive relationship and path research between over investment and stock price collapse risk of listed companies from a new perspective.