滨湖城市水安全风险评估——以南昌市为例

Risk assessment of water security in lakeside cities:a case study of Nanchang City

水安全风险评价是城市水安全保障得重要科学依据,由于滨湖城市“城—湖”面积呈竞争关系,城镇化的快速发展导致其水安全问题尤为突出。为评估滨湖城市的水安全风险,在充分分析南昌市经济社会、水质状况、生态环境三个方面对水安全影响因素的情况下,建立包括指标体系构建、安全等级确定和安全风险评估三大模块的城市水安全风险评估模型。以南昌市为例,系统评估南昌市水安全风险,结果表明:(1)森林覆盖率是滨湖城市水安全风险最主要的影响因素,其次是人均水资源量和人口自然增长率;(2)GDP增长率、水资源开发利用率、COD Mn等指标与滨湖城市水安全风险呈负相关作用,其余指标与水安全风险呈正相关作用;(3)不同影响因素在同一等级区间对水安全风险的作用效果不同,同一影响因素在不同等级区间对水安全风险的作用效果也不同,大部分指标在位于中间等级时对水安全风险影响最大。

Risk assessment of water security is an important scientific basis for urban water security guarantee.The rapid development of urbanization leads to the water security problem,which is particularly prominent because the“city-lake”area of lakeside cities is competitive.Taking Nanchang City as example,this paper fully analyzes the factors affecting water security from three aspects:economy and society,water quality and ecological environment.A water security risk assessment model is established,which includes three modules:index system,safety level and safety risk assessment.The results show that:(1)Forest coverage rate is the most important factor affecting water security risk in lakeside cities,followed by water resources per capita and natural population growth rate;(2)GDP growth rate,water resources development and utilization ratio,COD MN and other indicators are negatively correlated with the water security risk of lakeside cities,while other indicators are positively correlated with the water security risk;(3)Different influencing factors have different effects on water security risks in the same grade interval,and the effect of the same influencing factor on water security risks is also different in different grade interval.Most indicators have the greatest impact on water security risks when they are in the middle grade.