“逐顶”还是“逐底”:金融集聚的“本地-邻地”减排效应

"Top to Top"or"Bottom to Bottom":The"Local Neighborhood"Emission Reduction Effect of Financial Agglomeration

文章将非期望产出纳入传统的产出密度模型,理论剖析金融集聚与碳排放的非线性关系,并基于2000—2018年我国省际样本数据,采用动态空间杜宾模型展开实证检验,进而重点讨论经济发展和能源消费路径对于两者关系的影响。研究发现:金融集聚在“本地—邻地”的空间范围内呈现“逐顶”与“逐底”交错且同步调整的减排效应;金融集聚与本地碳排放存在显著的“倒N”型曲线关系,即金融集聚呈现“抑制—促增—抑制”的三阶段碳排放特征;金融集聚对周边地区的碳排放空间溢出效应同样呈现典型的“倒N”型影响,即金融集聚在空间范围内具有一致的“邻地—本地”碳排放效应,且周边地区碳排放溢出效应强度高于本地;东中西部金融集聚与碳排放均保持稳健的“倒U”型关系,但影响强度异质特征明显,其中中部地区金融集聚潜在的碳排放影响最为显著;能源消费路径是金融集聚引致碳排放变化的关键渠道,经济发展则表现为相反且偏弱的渠道效应。

In this paper,unexpected output is included in the traditional output density model,and the nonlinear relationship between financial agglomeration and carbon emissions is analyzed theoretically.Based on China􀆳s provincial sample data from 2000 to 2018,the dynamic spatial Durbin model is used to conduct an empirical test,and then the impact of economic develop⁃ment and energy consumption path on the relationship is discussed.The results show that financial agglomeration in the"local neighborhood"spatial range presents a"top to top"and"bottom to bottom"staggered and synchronous adjustment of emission reduction effect;there is a significant"inverted N"curve relationship between financial agglomeration and local carbon emis⁃sions,that is,financial agglomeration presents a three-stage carbon emission characteristic of"inhibition-promotion-inhibi⁃tion";the spatial spillover effect of financial agglomeration on carbon emissions in surrounding areas also presents a typical"in⁃verted N"effect,that is,financial agglomeration has a consistent"neighborhood-local"carbon emission effect in the spatial range.The intensity of carbon emission spillover effect in surrounding areas is higher than that in local areas;the relationship between financial agglomeration and carbon emissions in eastern,central,and western regions maintains a stable"inverted U"relationship,but the heterogeneity of impact intensity is obvious,and the potential impact of financial agglomeration on carbon emissions in central region is the most significant;energy consumption path is the key channel of carbon emission change caused by financial agglomeration,while economic development shows the opposite and weak channel effect.