美国亚太联盟管理困境评估

Assessment of Management Dilemmas of American Asia-Pacific Alliance

二战后至今,美国亚太联盟体系在不断演进过程中,面临一系列管理困境,如联盟战略目标几度更改、内部凝聚力不断下降、盟主领导力下降、国际信誉持续走低等。其主要原因是,错把中国当做亚太联盟的战略目标,导致盟友面临“选边站”困境;联盟成员自身安全需求度降低,美国对亚太盟友互惠程度下降,联盟内部离心力加大;美国甚至以金钱来衡量亚太联盟的价值,引发盟友严重的不信任,同时联盟还受到美国总统个人因素的影响。展望未来,拜登政府重视联盟作用,却难以医治亚太联盟内部顽疾,美欧信赖感的降低对美国亚太联盟产生消极的传导作用,中国因素日益增大,加大了美国盟友“选边站”的安全成本,甚至在消解美国亚太联盟的存在价值。

Since world War Ⅱ,the Asia-pacific Alliance System of the United States has faced a series of management dilemmas in its gradual progress,such as several changes in the strategic objectives of the alliance,declining internal cohesion,decreasing leadership of the alliance,and its descending international credibility. There are several important reasons: First,China is mistakenly regarded as the strategic goal of the Asia-Pacific Alliance,resulting in the dilemma of "taking side" for allies;Second,due to the reduced security needs of alliance members,the degree of reciprocity between the United States and its Asia-Pacific allies has decreased,giving rise to increased centrifugal force within the alliance;Third,the United States even measures the value of the Asia-Pacific alliance with money,causing serious mistrust among allies. In addition,the alliance is also affected by the personal factors of the US president. Looking ahead,the Biden administration attaches great importance to the role of the alliance,but it is difficult to solve the persistent problems within the Asia Pacific Alliance. The reduced sense of trust between the United States and Europe has a negative transmission effect on the United States Asia-Pacific alliance. The increasing Chinese factors have increased the security costs of American allies’ "Side-picking" and even eliminated the value of the United States Asia-Pacific alliance.