广东新型城镇化与农业现代化协调发展研究

The Study on the Coordinated Development of New Urbanization and Agricultural Modernization in Guangdong Province

新型城镇化与农业现代化是广东高质量发展的两个重要方面。采用主成分因子法选取了反映新型城镇化与农业现代化发展水平的各20个指标,通过测定新型城镇化与农业现代化之间的耦合协调度,再运用VAR模型描述两者之间的内在关系。研究发现:广东新型城镇化与农业现代化的耦合协调度逐步上升,先后经历"失调-濒临失调-初级协调-中级协调",目前整体耦合度并不高;广东新型城镇化对农业现代化产生正向拉动效应,较强于农业现代化的反作用,而长期内这种拉动效应渐渐被强化趋于平稳。因此,为实现两者之间的协调发展,应充分发挥新型城镇化对农业现代化的正向拉动作用。

New urbanization and agricultural modernization are two important aspects of high quality development Guangdong Province. In this paper, 20 indicators reflecting the development level of new urbanization and agricultural modernization are selected by the principal component factor method, and the degree of coupling and coordination between new urbanization and agricultural modernization is determined, and the internal relationship between new urbanization and agricultural modernization is described by VAR model. The results show that the coupling coordination degree of new urbanization and agricultural modernization in Guangdong Province is gradually increasing, and has experienced "maladjustment-verging imbalance-primary coordination-intermediate coordination".Guangdong′s new urbanization has a positive pull effect on agricultural modernization, which is stronger than the reaction of agricultural modernization. In the long run, this pulling effect is gradually strengthened and tends to be stable. Therefore, in order to achieve the coordinated development between the two, we should give full play to the positive pulling role of new urbanization on agricultural modernization.